AK-AL: Young Doesn’t Rule Out Independent Run

In the diaries, Andy Dufresne makes a nice catch — if GOP Rep. Don Young loses his primary bid to Sean Parnell, he won’t rule out an Independent run in November:

Asked if he would consider running as an Independent if he lost the primary, Young said he hadn’t considered it.

“It’s a good idea; I might,” he said. “But I don’t expect him to win the primary.”

Now, the next logical question is: Is it possible for Young to get on the ballot as an Indie?

A quick legal analysis of Alaska electoral statutes by the Law Offices of Crumb & Bum, LLC, tells us that the only path for Young would be to wage a write-in campaign. The deadline for filing petitions to get on the ballot was primary day, so the write-in option is really Young’s only choice:

If a candidate does not appear on the primary election ballot or is not successful in advancing to the general election and wishes to be a candidate in the general election, the candidate may file as a write-in candidate.

However, all of this may be moot, as Young still holds a 152-vote lead with one precinct — but several thousand absentee and questioned ballots — outstanding.

Andy cranks it up a notch by looking at the district-by-district returns in Alaska, and finds that Young has actually performed slightly better among the absentee ballots counted so far than he has in the overall vote. That seems to be a good sign that the outstanding absentee ballots will help The Donald pad his preciously narrow margin.

We still likely won’t have a final answer for another couple of weeks, which is fantastic news for Ethan Berkowitz. According to Roll Call, the state will take another 10 to 15 days to count absentee and provisional ballots, and a winner will be certified on Sept. 17th or 18th. But that’s not all:

If the final difference between the two candidates is less than a half percentage point, a defeated candidate or 10 voters can petition a recount with the state footing the bill. If the difference between Parnell and Young is more than a half percentage point, a recount could be implemented at their own expense to the tune of about $15,000.

The recount would take an additional three to five days, pushing the GOP tension and uncertainty all the way into late September.

23 thoughts on “AK-AL: Young Doesn’t Rule Out Independent Run”

  3. Wait until the GOP starts saying time and time again how the only way that Berkowitz could have won was a bad incumbant. Its always the one who lost’s fault, never the brand, or the message, or that the Democrat was a really good candidate, better in fact than theirs, even though he/she was a Democrat.  

  6. and then Parnell demands a recount and the final recount shows him losing by like 9 votes. Young get’s certified on Sept 23 or something like that. Get’s blow out in November.

  7. I mean let’s say you play for the GOP team – extending the primary by another couple of weeks to a month is a disaster for you.  Neither candidate can raise money effectively or share their message.  It looks like Gov Palin, Sen Murkowski, maybe even Uncle Ted, the AK GOP Chair should get together in a room and make a prediction about how this is likely to go and get the loser to give up.  Tell Parnell that he’ll have an open shot at Berkowitz in 2 years if Berkowitz wins and tell him to graciously step down after the absentee ballots have been counted and he doesn’t have a lead.  It’s a lot harder to tell Don Young that if he falls behind in the recount.

    When will The Cook Report or Roll Call or Rothenburg change the rating of this race?

  8. According to the Anchorage Daily News, the one missing precinct is the small town of Hughes, Alaska.  Hughes has 63 voters but acvcording to Wikipedia 78% of its population of (strangely) 78 is Native American with 10% being white and 10% being other.  There won’t be many Republican votes in Hughes so Parnell will have to depend on late absentee ballots or a recount.

    Btw, Gabrielle LeDoux carried her home district (# 36).

  9. To be honest, after I went through the numbers, I was surprised Young did so much better among absentee votes.  And yes, beating Parnell by one percent is a lot when you consider the overall margin of 0.16 percent.

    I am not sure if there is a concrete reason why Young did better with the 4901 absentee votes, but maybe part of it has to do with the fact that Parnell ran such an awful campaign.  Even with LeDoux in the race, he should have won the contest a lot more easily.  Judging by what I have seen and read about Parnell, I really believe he thought he could run as Palin’s lieutenant, do nothing else, and coast to victory.  He underestimated the longtime incumbent’s fire.

    And let me also add that while we all want Young, he will NOT be a pushover.  It will be a fight.  What does help us, besides this whole mess, is that he will have little money left over (especially if he has to hire lawyers for a recount), trouble fundraising, and the NRCC will be really strapped given their total ineptness, which has been chronicled here and elsewhere.

    Also, one other thing to remember: sure Young showed resiliency here, but the voters in the semi-closed primary are the hardcore loyalists, and not fully representative of the state at large, so people should not get too excited about Young resurrection either.  

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